Authors: Russell Hillberry

University of Melbourne

Phillip McCalman

University of California at Santa Cruz

May 2010

Abstract

The underlying motivation for filing an anti-dumping petition is that some shock has disrupted the previous equilibrium. Moreover, these shocks need to be persistent for an anti-dumping petition to be both feasible and appropriate. This presents a relatively complex inferential problem that requires product level rather than industry level data.

Using monthly product level data for the U.S. we find that typically two shocks precede the filing of an anti-dumping petition: a foreign shock that impacts a subset of exporting countries followed subsequently by a negative domestic demand shock.

The foreign shock occurs on average 15 months prior to the filing and is reflected in significantly higher quantities imported into the U.S. by countries named in a petition. This increase is achieved through two extensive margins; an increase in the number of shipments and also a geographical expansion of shipments (proxied by an increase in ports served).

While these changes are pronounced, the foreign firms appear to have skillfully maintained aspects of the previous equilibrium as overall prices and quantities are relatively constant. However, these changes are cast into a different light 6 months prior to filing by a domestic demand shock, which reduces overall prices and quantities. The compound nature of the shocks appears to be critical for the filing of an anti-dumping petition.