Some sources said that preliminary measures could be introduced as early as December-January in order to tackle the rise in HRC imports into Turkey, especially from China. But others did not expect such a quick turnaround, especially because a similar probe on EU and South Korean HRC in 2021-22 lasted for a year and a half.

"In accordance with the relevant provisions of the Law and the Decision, it may be decided to apply a temporary measure during the investigation and the final measure can be applied retrospectively," regulation from the Turkish trade ministry reads.

Several market participants expect that dumping duties on Chinese HRC could be in the double digits, between 10pc and 20pc, should authorities decide to introduce them.

Over the first nine months of 2023, flat imports into Turkey have risen by 9.8pc on the year to 7.4mn t.

Chinese imports underpinned the increase, amid a 67.8pc jump in supply at 2.4mn t during the same timeframe.

But market participants agree that any dumping duties will not have a significant effect on the market, as most buyers use the inward processing regime to purchase material subject to trade tariffs, which means that they are not payable as long as the buyer exports the same amount of finished products as the HRC imported. Although one source estimated that around 20pc of Chinese HRC purchased by Turkey this year had been used in domestic consumption, and so subject to customs taxes.

The looming threat of new duties has pushed Turkish buyers and traders to look at other HRC origins to satisfy their purchasing needs, such as Thailand and Malaysia. New flat steel capacity, of up to 4.5mn t/yr is coming on line in Malaysia over the next year, which is expected to attract interest in Turkey. Malaysia has already been selling slab in Turkey, amid reduced Russian slab supply and EU and US sanctions on the country. There is a free trade agreement (FTA) between Malaysia and Turkey, whereas a source said that a similar deal is under negotiation with Thailand. Countries that have FTAs with Turkey are exempt from import customs taxes.

Source: Argus