The Moscow Times reported that mounting pressure on various governments to impose protectionist tariffs is not likely to halt surging Russian steel exports because widespread foreign demand can blunt the impact of scattered import duties.

A sharp slowdown in global trade has also made it difficult for countries to prove domestic producers are under threat from imports, even though an increasing number of governments are considering tariffs.

The London-based Iron and Steel Statistics Bureau said global steel production fell 22%YoY in January through May while exports by the world’s top 10 exporters dropped 30% in the Q1.

Mr David Phelps president of the American Institute for International Steel said “We’ve seen a slowdown in global trade and I don’t think there is any question that this makes it more difficult for domestic industry in the USA and elsewhere in the world to file dumping cases.”

Ordinarily, tariff actions increase during recessions as politicians respond to pressure from local industries to preserve jobs by blocking foreign competitors’ access and from Washington to Beijing, anti-dumping investigations and other measures are on the rise.

In May, the WTO noted that anti-dumping investigations rose 17%YoY in the H2 of 2008. While some analysts argue that the situation is destined to change as the global downturn worsens, Morgan Stanley’s Mr Dmitry Kolomytsyn maintains that Russia the world’s fourth largest steel producer will continue to thrive.

He said that “Risk remains but is less of a concern given the wide dispersion of Russian steel exports across countries and continuing hesitation on the part of some governments to increase duties, adding Iran, Turkey and Taiwan were Russia’s top export markets for long steel in the Q1.”

In recent months, almost every major Russian steel producer has announced that Q1 exports increased compared with the Q4.

from The Moscow Times

Monday, 20 Jul 2009

Source: steelguru.com