Export carries on its growth; however, the growth rate is much lower than that in the last few years. Main export articles are in difficulties. Ministry of Trade (MOT) is worried about the possibility to reach the exporting target of this year.

Increased but lower than expectation

The latest report of MOT showed that exporting rate in the first 5 months of this year increased 18.4% year on year. Although this is a high rate, it is lower than that in the last two years: the exporting growth rate of the first 5 months in 2006 is 24.3% and in 2005 is over 20%.

MOT said that exporting turnover of the first 5 months in 2007 accounts for 38% exporting target while the year 2007 has passed 42%. Besides, average monthly exporting turnover of those 5 months is US$ 3.6 billion whereas to achieve exporting target the turnover must be US$ 4 billion per month.

Obviously, export increased but does not meet MOT’s expectation and it’s a long way for exporting activity in the coming months. If there is no new exporting growth score, exporting turnover target over 20% can not be realized.

Many main export articles are in difficulties

In the first 5 months, exporting growth rate of these articles steadily increases. However, difficulties have appeared and can affect them.

Crude oil is expected to export average 1.46 million tons/ month. In fact, average exported volume is only 1.29 million tons/ month because of exploitation decrease. Thus, MOT concerns that total exporting crude oil this year can not reach its target, apart from the fact that the price did not increased as high as last year.

Garments and textile, another main export article, is facing trade barriers set by partners. Up to now, because of the impact of US garments and textile control system, American customers have not sign contracts or the third quarter yet. This year target for garments and textile is US$ 7.35 billion. To attain this target the export growth rate must be over 27% in comparison with 2006. In reality, exporting turnover in the first 5 months of this industry is only 24.3%. MOT estimated that with this average rate this industry can bring about US$ 6.5 billion unless it soars up in the left months of this year.

At the same time, footwear is still suffering from impacts of antidumping case in EU. Exporting turnover into EU market is very low whereas other markets’ development is not high enough to compensate. Target exporting turnover is over US$ 4 billion, increased by 21% in 2006. However, exporting turnover in the first 5 months is only US$ 1.488 billion, increased by 7.8% year on year. This raised much concern about possibility to achieve the target.

Moreover, main articles such as wooden furniture, electronic spare parts increased at much lower rate than expectation. If this continues, target of these articles can not be achieved.

Although aquatic product has higher growth rate than estimated, it is confronting difficulties in being controlled the food safety. If this issue is unsolved, Vietnamese aquatic product would be imposed restriction of importing in main exporting markets and this will be a big threat.

In the first 5 months, many of agricultural and forest products such as coffee, peppercorn have good growth rate. However some major articles decreased which can lead to limitation of this industry’s contribution into total exporting turnover. Exporting turnover of coffee in the first 5 months is US$ 1.124 billion, increased by 121.6% and the target completion of this article is in hand. In contrast, rubber and rice – the two billion articles last year – is in difficulty.

Specifically, rubber exporting turnover in the first 5 months increased only 3.9%; and if the market is ill-exploited, the target of US$ 1.37 billion from exporting this article will impossible, too. At the same time, rice exporting is still in decline trend. Exporting turnover in the first 5 months decreases 4.6%. But the future of this article is bright because rice exporting in March and April is on the rise. With advantages in both price and market, rice exporting turnover can reach the target of US$ 1.4 billion.

Facing this reality, MOT has exerted itself to give out solutions aimed at compensating decrease in exporting turnover. One measure is that MOT together with enterprises in particular industry will find out causes which constrains export and then take necessary measures to promote export. At the end of this week, the first conference on wood processing industry was held in Ho Chi Minh City. Furthermore, MOT is seeking new export momentums. It has also clear cut over 20 articles and for the first time named specifically new articles from “other articles” in previous list in order to look for potential articles as new key growth elements.
Phuoc Ha