As global trade enters a more fragmented and multipolar phase, Viet Nam's role as a sustainable manufacturing and export hub is increasingly strengthened by the reliable implementation of government policies and prudent management by the central bank.

From 2026 onwards, this policy discipline will continue to be a decisive advantage for Viet Nam as multinational companies reassess supply chain concentration risks, focusing on reliability, scalability, and policy certainty. This is the assessment of Chief Economist Shan Saeed of IQI Juwai, a Malaysian real estate industry group.

According to an assessment by expert Shan Saeed, cited by the Viet Nam News Agency correspondent in Kuala Lumpur, Viet Nam's macroeconomic policy framework prioritizes stable growth over excessive stimulus. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is projected to reach 7-8% in the medium term, supported by sustained investment momentum, industrial upgrading, and stable domestic demand. Inflation is maintained at around 3-3.5%, preserving cost competitiveness while protecting purchasing power. Public debt remains at a moderate level of 37-38% of GDP, providing financial space for infrastructure, logistics, and industrial policy initiatives without impacting the strength of the national balance sheet. The chief economist affirmed that this macroeconomic structure plays a key role in maintaining investor confidence.

According to expert Shan Saeed, trade and industrial policies have yielded tangible results. Viet Nam's goods exports exceeded US$405 billion in 2024, with diversification steadily improving as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the Middle East, and South Asia increasingly gain market share alongside traditional markets such as the US and the European Union. Participation in high-standard trade frameworks – such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans- Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), the Viet Nam-EU Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA), and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) – provides preferential access to markets accounting for over 30% of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP), significantly reducing tariff barriers while enhancing supply chain flexibility.

Furthermore, monetary policy has remained disciplined and market-oriented. The State Bank of Viet Nam has focused on exchange rate stability, stable liquidity conditions, and the resilience of the financial system, helping to anchor inflation expectations and mitigate external shocks. This stability has supported strong investment flows, with total foreign direct investment (FDI) exceeding US$25 billion in 2024, increasingly flowing into the electronics, semiconductor, electric vehicle components, and higher-value manufacturing sectors.

Expert Shan Saeed predicts that looking beyond 2026, continued investment in ports, logistics corridors, and e-customs systems – along with policies to strengthen the domestic supplier ecosystem and workforce skills – will further enhance Viet Nam's resilience. In a world where policy credibility and enforcement are just as important as cost, Viet Nam is well-positioned to become a reliable, long-term supply chain partner in the restructuring of global trade.

Source: Tin Tuc News