In the first quarter of 2026, the country's agricultural, forestry, and fisheries export turnover reached US$16.69 billion, an increase of 5.9% compared to the same period in 2025. However, while many export items increased in volume, their value did not increase proportionally, and in some cases even decreased due to declining export prices.

Restructuring products and shifting strongly towards high-quality markets is necessary to halt price declines and ensure profitability for farmers and businesses.

Mr. Tran Gia Long, Deputy Director of the Planning-Finance Department ( Ministry of Agriculture and Environment ), stated: The most significant price decline was seen in the coffee sector, where the average export price was only about 4,697 USD/ton, a decrease of nearly 17% compared to the same period last year, resulting in a 6.4% decrease in value despite a 12.6% increase in export volume. Next was rice, with a slight increase of 0.2% in export volume but a 7.8% decrease in value due to an 8% drop in average price. Other commodities such as rubber and pepper saw growth in volume but also faced downward price pressure, with rubber down 5.1%, pepper down 5.9%; and cashew nuts experiencing slight decreases in both volume and value due to a 0.8% decrease in export price compared to the same period last year.

This situation is caused by the general downward trend in world market prices, coupled with increasingly fierce competition among countries exporting the same goods. The decline in agricultural export prices has directly impacted the domestic market, affecting farmers' income and ability to reinvest. From the beginning of March until now, coffee prices in the Central Highlands provinces have fallen by approximately 3,200-3,800 VND/kg, to just over 90,000 VND/kg. Similarly, the price of winter-spring rice continues to decline, especially during the peak harvest season, with an average decrease of about 500 VND/kg. For pepper, the domestic price decrease is mainly due to a sharp increase in supply during the main harvest season, while purchasing power has not improved correspondingly. By the end of March, pepper prices in key growing regions had decreased by 7,500-8,500 VND/kg compared to the end of February, fluctuating around 139,000-140,500 VND/kg depending on the locality. This development shows that when export prices fall, the domestic market has almost no "buffer" to maintain prices, immediately affecting production. This also reflects the high dependence of many commodities on the raw material market, where prices fluctuate mainly according to global supply and demand.

Looking at the coffee industry, Vietnam still mainly exports Robusta coffee in raw form, thus limiting added value. Amid improved global supply, Robusta prices on the world market continue to face downward pressure, dragging down export prices. According to the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade), by early March 2026, the inventory of certified Robusta on the ICE London coffee exchange had reached its highest level in over three months. Meanwhile, data from the International Coffee Organization (ICO) shows that global Robusta coffee exports from October 2025 to January 2026 are expected to increase sharply thanks to the recovery of supply from major producing countries such as Vietnam, Brazil, and Indonesia, thereby increasing downward pressure on prices. However, while Robusta coffee is constantly under pressure from oversupply, Arabica coffee, a product line with clearly defined quality and standards, tends to increase in price thanks to stable consumer demand in the premium segment. This difference clearly demonstrates how price is closely linked to the level of production standardization and product value. According to Nguyen Nam Hai, Chairman of the Vietnam Coffee-Cocoa Association, promoting deep processing is an urgent requirement to enhance the value of exported coffee. In the long term, it is necessary to build a clear standard system for Robusta coffee as well as a national promotion strategy, including product positioning, brand identity, and origin story, in order to gradually improve its position and create a better price level in the international market.

For rice, exports remain primarily in large volumes to traditional markets, making prices susceptible to fluctuations, especially in the context of increasing global supply. Mr. Nguyen Chanh Trung, Director of Hung Viet Rice Co., Ltd., suggests shifting towards developing higher-value products such as smaller packaging sizes, building unique brands, and distributing to specific market segments. This approach not only enhances product value but also reduces dependence on general price fluctuations. In fact, Vietnam's specialty rice, fragrant rice, and low-emission green rice, when exported to high-quality markets like the US, Japan, and the EU, maintain good prices and are less affected by global rice market volatility.

Besides coffee and rice, pepper is in a similar situation, with exports in the first two months of the year still mainly consisting of raw, unprocessed products, accounting for 82.3% of total exports. This clearly reveals a growing dependence on the raw material market, leading to erratic fluctuations in export prices. It is evident that halting the decline in agricultural export prices cannot rely solely on global market developments but also heavily depends on the self-adjustment capabilities of each agricultural sector. When products are standardized in quality, targeted to specific customer segments, and shifted to higher-value markets, export prices will be stabilized, helping each sector gradually take control of price movements in the global agricultural market.

Source: NhanDanNews