Despite recording double-digit growth in many major markets in January, seafood exports are facing technical barriers and new US tax policies, threatening the competitive advantage of Vietnamese businesses.

Viet Nam's seafood exports started 2026 with an impressive growth rate of 30.6% in January, reaching over $1.01 billion, compared to $774 million in the same period of 2025.

However, Ms. Le Hang, Deputy Secretary General of the Viet Nam Association of Seafood Processing and Export (VASEP), believes that this upward trend is heavily influenced by technical and seasonal factors, while the outlook for February is being affected by the intertwined impacts of the Lunar New Year holiday and fluctuations in trade policies in the US market.

The growth in seafood exports in January 2026 mainly stemmed from two factors. Firstly, January 2025 coincided with the Lunar New Year holiday, significantly reducing the number of production and delivery days. This year, the Lunar New Year fell in February, allowing for more normal export activities in January. Secondly, import demand in some markets increased sharply to serve the early year festive season.

Accordingly, exports to ASEAN increased by 47%, and to China and Hong Kong by 34%. Other major markets such as the EU, Japan, and South Korea all recorded increases of 24-29%. By product, pangasius exports increased sharply by 59.2%, squid and octopus by 40.4%, other fish products by 36.9%, and shrimp by 22.1%.

"The overall picture is quite positive, showing a recovery in demand in many regions after a volatile 2025. However, within that bright picture, the US market emerges as a point of caution," Ms. Hang stated.

Exports to the US in January reached $128.4 million, an increase of 20.2%. However, this increase was mainly due to the lower base comparative advantage. In fact, many businesses reported that orders to the US were showing signs of slowing down amidst unstable market sentiment due to technical barriers and tariffs.

The most striking example is the tuna industry. While total tuna exports in January increased by 13.4%, exports to the US market alone decreased by 5.7%. Comparing the two years on a comparable basis (based on the same number of working days), the actual decline could be significantly higher. This reflects the caution of importers in the context of rapidly changing trade policies.

The core of the instability lies in US tax policy. Following the US Supreme Court ruling overturning previously applied global tariffs, the US shifted to applying a 15% tariff under a different legal basis. According to Reuters, the US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) will cease collecting tariffs under the IEEPA from February 24, 2026.

Compared to the 20% retaliatory tariff applied to Vietnamese goods from August 2025, the 15% rate is lower. However, this also means that the tariff gap between Viet Nam and countries that previously faced high tariffs, such as China or India, has narrowed, increasing competition in the US market. In this context, Viet Nam's relative advantage is no longer as pronounced as before.

Besides tariffs, the Deputy Secretary General of VASEP stated that technical barriers are also increasing. From January 1, 2026, the US officially banned the import of seafood from fishing operations or countries not recognized as equivalent under the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA). Many shipments may require additional Certificates of Analysis (COA), increasing compliance costs and the risk of customs clearance delays. These technical requirements necessitate businesses reviewing their supply chains, especially those involved in marine fishing.

Meanwhile, on the demand side, the US market continues to show positive signs. Winter snowstorms have increased the trend of staying home, boosting retail sales of seafood, especially frozen and canned goods. Lent 2026 is also triggering major promotional programs, further supporting consumption. This indicates that demand is not the main bottleneck; the issue lies in policy uncertainty and trade costs.

Entering February 2026, seafood exports are unlikely to maintain the high growth rate seen in January. Firstly, the Lunar New Year holiday falling in February will reduce the number of production and delivery days. Secondly, the final results of the anti-dumping duties on shrimp (POR19), announced on February 17th, may impact the sentiment for signing new orders.

In the baseline scenario, February exports could see a slight increase or a low single-digit year-on-year increase, depending on delivery schedules and the US market's reaction after the 15% tariff is implemented. If the policy environment stabilizes soon, the positive impact could become more apparent from the second quarter. Conversely, if further policy adjustments occur, businesses will face increased competitive pressure and higher compliance costs.

"Overall, 2026 begins with positive signs of recovery, but the growth picture is not entirely uniform. The US market – one of the key markets – is entering a period of significant volatility in trade policy. In this context, the ability to adapt quickly, ensure compliance, and diversify markets will continue to be key factors in maintaining the growth momentum of Viet Nam's seafood industry in the coming months," Ms. Hang observed.

Source: Vietnamese businesses News