In 2025, Viet Nam will for the first time become the leading supplier of lobster to China, amidst China's sharp increase in imports and the imposition of additional tariffs on Canadian goods. Vietnamese lobster is facing a great opportunity to consolidate its position. However, with major competitors returning to the market and increasingly demanding market requirements, 2026 is seen as a test of resilience for the entire industry chain.

Why is lobster experiencing such a surge in popularity?

According to the Viet Nam Association of Seafood Processing and Export (VASEP), seafood consumption in China is clearly segmented. The "budget-conscious" consumer group is increasing its purchases of inexpensive products, while the high-end segment maintains strong purchasing power, driving up demand for high-value products such as large shrimp, live seafood like lobster, and processed/convenient products. The expansion of modern retail, e-commerce, and restaurant chains is also contributing to "pushing" consumers away from the low-priced frozen shrimp segment and creating more room for high-end products, including lobster.

Experts believe this picture is important for lobster supplies because it is an income-dependent commodity and often experiences rapid growth when demand for "delicious food, unique experiences, and celebratory meals" recovers. At the same time, consumer differentiation puts pressure on the mid-range segment, while the high-end and "convenience" product segments maintain stable growth – precisely where Viet Nam excels in quality, versatility, and processing.

Citing data from China's General Administration of Customs, VASEP reported that China will import 69,774 tons of lobster in 2025, a significant increase from 60,834 tons in 2024. Meanwhile, in 2024, Canada was the largest supplier with 26,920 tons, accounting for approximately 44% of total imports. Viet Nam ranked second with 10,865 tons, equivalent to about 18%. In 2025, the situation reversed. Viet Nam rose to the top with 24,067 tons, accounting for approximately 34.5% of the market share. Canada's imports dropped sharply to 15,355 tons (about 22%). The United States reached 9,931 tons (14.2%), while Australia increased to 6,950 tons (approximately 10%), indicating a clear diversification of China's supply sources.

One of the key factors driving this change is tariff policy. From March 20, 2025, China imposed an additional 25% tariff on many Canadian seafood products, including lobster. Given that this is a high-value but price-sensitive product, this tariff made Canadian goods less competitive, forcing importers to seek alternative sources. At that time, Viet Nam emerged with the advantage of its geographical proximity, fast delivery times, flexible shipment options, and especially its suitability for live/fresh products – a crucial element of the lobster market. By early 2026, an agreement between China and Canada will remove the 25% tariff on Canadian lobster and crab from March 1, 2026. The competition among lobster suppliers to China will enter a new phase in 2026.

Logistics and quality control are key to maintaining growth momentum.

According to data from Viet Nam Customs, 2025 is a breakthrough year for Vietnamese lobster, especially in the Chinese and Hong Kong markets. The total value of Vietnamese lobster exports to these two markets is expected to reach US$1.3 billion, a 55% increase compared to 2024. Green lobster exports alone are projected to reach US$840 million, a 131% increase, becoming the main driver of this growth. By January 2026, exports of green lobster to China and Hong Kong exceeded US$100 million, a 6% increase year-on-year, demonstrating continued positive consumption momentum from the beginning of the year.

From March 1, 2026, the 25% tariff on Canadian lobster and crab will be removed by China under an agreement between the two countries. This is expected to open up a new round of competition in the Chinese market. Canada has strong incentives to regain market share, especially in the high-end restaurant and gift channels. Australia is also consolidating its presence after trade resumed. Meanwhile, Chinese consumption continues to diverge: the high-end segment still has purchasing power, but consumers are becoming increasingly value-conscious.

According to VASEP, despite a strong increase in exports, domestic lobster farmers still face many difficulties. Intense competition from Australia, Canada, the United States, and Southeast Asian countries such as the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia has put significant pressure on domestic purchase prices. With China lifting its ban on Australian lobster, Viet Nam's market share is under even greater pressure. Along with price, the Chinese market is tightening regulations on quality and processing facility registration. New regulations, such as Order 280, are being strictly enforced and could directly impact exports, especially for live lobsters.

According to VASEP experts, to maintain growth momentum, Vietnamese businesses need to closely follow market trends: stabilizing quality, standardizing specifications, optimizing logistics for live/fresh seafood, and increasing direct connections with modern distribution systems. 2025 shows China ready to "buy heavily" on lobster as the high-end segment recovers. However, 2026 will be a test of resilience. In increasingly fierce competition, the supplier that maintains quality, delivery speed, and the ability to stay within distribution channels will be the one to retain market share.

Source: People's Deputies News